Oil prices are set to average between $81 and $100 per barrel over the next 12 months as demand destruction continues to balance a market grappling with a lasting war risk premium, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence survey. Over 40% of asset managers and energy strategists believe demand destruction will be the primary driver amid the worst oil supply shock in history, while 21% acknowledge re-routing and logistics adjustments as key factors. OPEC+ spare capacity and policy responses accounted for 13%, though only 12% of participants attributed any material offset to these factors. Despite initial price rebounds on Wednesday, rising prices for Brent Crude (up to $105) and WTI Crude (to $99) highlight volatility. However, market participants remain cautious, noting that the U.S. President’s recent comments about Iran negotiations — which led to a 5% decline in crude prices — have heightened sensitivity to geopolitical headlines. A study by ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlights how prior periods of similar uncertainty often resulted in disappointment. This situation underscores the delicate interplay between supply disruptions, strategic responses, and global economic uncertainties.
